Everyone is making predictions at the moment.Tricky when we are going through the greatest market turmoil that I have experienced in the last 15 years of running Nimbus, and probably in the last 30 years in business. Nevertheless, here goes.
- Senior executives will realise that BPM is strategic to their organisation as they look for double whammy of improved effectiveness and reduced cost against a backdrop of greater regulatory compliance.
- BPM will still be a confusing term used by analysts, software vendors and clients (business and IT) to mean different things – and this sadly will not change.
- Business will get more engaged in speficiying and delivering BPM projects alongside IT, or without the support of knowledge of IT due to Cloud BPM offerings. ROI can become RBI (return before investment) as spped to benefits gets quicker.
- All this said there will be no BPM Tornado (a la Geoffrey Moore) much to the anquish of the smaller software vendors who desperately need to be able to drive larger more profitable sales. Consequently we will see an acceleration of the current consolidation, some companies acquired from a position of strength and some fire sales.
- So 2012 could be a good year for software vendors if they have a truly differentiated offering which delivers benefit and fills an urgent need (ie compliance). But truly awful, or terminal if not.
- 2012 should be a good year for clients who have senior management that embrace BPM. Market/economy pressures and regulation will drive up the profile and importance of BPM projects, which is great for careers. Cloud and competition will drive down the cost of BPM technology whic his great for ROI.
- 2012 is not the year for launching a new BPM technology product, nor is 2013 or 2014. There is enough technology already available for clients from large established, and therefore lower risk, vendors.