Making it big means the transformational, viral, highly profitable growth. Think CRM, ERP, tablet, databases, Business Intelligence, Security. Making it big means that companies that can reach annual revenues greater than $1bn.

Technology is not like any other industry.  It goes through ‘paradigm shifts’ which require massive reinvestment in technology platforms by companies. This means that new innovative technology is adopted ‘under the radar’ by evangelists, who are normally business users who see the benefits.  Only once it has proven itself does it stand any chance of being purchased by IT departments.  But IT has a vested interest in buying for the existing players – the ‘gorillas’. It is lower risk, it minimizes the different vendors to manage, and it looks good on their CVs. The buying culture of the evangelistic business user and the risk-averse IT buyer is stark, and Geoffrey Moore described it as a chasm in his book Crossing the Chasm.  More recently, I co-authored a book Why Killer Products Don’t Sell which explains how you should go to market if you are trapped to the left of the chasm. For a free book summary for Why Killer Products Don’t Sell

So every technology company launches and expects to be to the left of the chasm, but is desperate to have their market mature so that they can sell into the massively profitable areas to the right of the chasm. Geoffrey Moore described the space to the right of the chasm as the tornado. Yet some technologies seem destined to stay to the left of the chasm.  Sad but true. If you are hoping to make on obscene fortune, selling a product in that niche forget it. That doesn’t mean you can’t work hard and make a living. But don’t plan, invest and focus on the day you hit hyper-growth. It may never happen.

Why is the tornado a forlorn hope for these technologies?  Firstly, the transition from chasm to tornado is not about the company, but the market. If these technologies haven’t made it after all these years, then they are unlikely to make it now. They are past their sell-by date; last years’ news. Or maybe the market not big enough or too disjointed to support the growth required. This doesn’t mean that they aren’t great ideas or technology, loved by those who use it, but they are niches.

So here is my list;

–       Mind mapping; A great technique which most people have heard of. It is marmite. Some people absolutely love it and absolutely everything turns into a mind map; shopping list, project plan, presentations, strategies for getting the perfect partner., bucket list. But it has never made it as a corporate standard. It can be important, but the purchase of software support is never urgent. Combine this with the limited need for wide scale sharing of the information which is often intensely personal. All this means that free software on desktop, laptops and smart phones often fills the need. Or even, God forbid, pen and paper.

–       Business Process Analysis; an area that has been popular since Michael Hammer’s book Re-engineering the Corporation. In those day is was consultants with yellow stickies. In many ways nothing has changed – consultants advising on business change, have not changed their approach. Ironic? Some clients are getting success from using software (eg TIBCO Nimbus Control) to support their process improvement activities to lock in the benefits and demonstrate compliance. But the time it has taken to get here, plus the in-fighting between the different factions or tribes of process improvement (LEAN, Sigma, BPM, change management) seems to have killed any chance of reaching tornado momentum.

–       Knowledge Management; You could argue that everything that companies store on servers and in the cloud is knowledge management. Part of the problem is that this is too broad a term. A subset, Document Management, has made it big with several companies like Documentum becoming significant players. In fact, they are a case study in Geoffrey Moore’s book of a company that has crossed the chasm.

–       Handwriting  recognition ;I loved Graffiti on my the Apple Newton, Palm and Window Mobile phones (yep – I am an early adopter). But like the over XX million people on the planet I am forced to peck out emails and txts on a little iPhone keyboard. At least I am never left searching for my stylus as I always have an index finger with me.

–       Voice recognition software; Voice recognition seems to be getter better. Some call centres are using it so that you can direct your own calls using voice rather than touch tones. But this is a limited set of responses. Some cars and phones can be controlled by voice. But it seems that the technology has not become accurate enough to be really valuable compared with keyboard entry.

–       Service Oriented Architectures (SOA); This was the big hope for the development of applications. Construct an enterprise application with reusable building blocks of Services. The promise was that this would be so easy even business users could do it. But no one could agree what a service was torn between practicability and ultimate reusability. For an example; was it ‘entering an address’ or ‘entering the postcode’. This approach has now been subsumed into application and BPM vendors offerings rather than a market in its own right.

What have I missed?

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2 thoughts on “Top technologies that will never make it big #bpm #mindmap #soa #graffiti #ai #voice

  1. Ian, what happens if you replace the word mindmapping with “visualisation” ? As you know I’ve recently become a big fan of mindmapping but as an interface to corporate systems not just as a tool or memory technique as pushed by Tony Buzan. (In fact I actively dislike the highly graphical design “scribble” type mind maps). Think personal dashboard or GUI or even portal. Yes maps are personal and I want my information presented to me in this “structure” whether it comes from outlook, sharepoint, documentum, Facebook or tibbr, because this is what makes sense to me. I can leave a project or a subset of my activities and focus on a new area, come back and the map immediately helps me pick up where I left off. So important to be able to quickly refocus these days when we are constantly bombarded by distractions irrespective of whether or not they are necessary. This visualisation approach has lots more to give – the real problem is the software companies trying to capitalise on the approach and control their markets – net effect they stifle sales. Ask me about attempting to work with Mindjet one day – or maybe it’s the VC investors that are the real nay sayers….

    1. Lucy – great comment. If you replace “mindmapping” with “visualisation” it gets even worse as that term is even more general. There is nothing wrong with mindmapping. I love it it. It is just not going to be massive and ubiquitous.

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